2021 Local Elections in North Macedonia: A Prelude to Alternation of Power?

Abstract

Prior to the 2021 elections, North Macedonia had an entrenched tradition of local-level voting for the central-level incumbent. The party leading the central government has always won most mayoral positions at the local elections since they were first held in 1996, making the lower-level contest a simple showcase of the support for the ruling parties. The October 2021 elections were quite different: the opposition right-wing Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (Vnatreshna makedonska revolucionerna organizacija – Demokratska partija za makedonsko nacionalno edinstvo, VMRO-DPMNE) claimed a dominant win, resulting in a resignation of the ruling center-left Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (Socijaldemokratski sojuz na Makedonija, SDSM) Prime Minister (PM) Zaev and the appointment of a new government with changed personnel from the side of SDSM. This outcome is due to the general public’s disappointment with the performance of the SDSM-led government, especially regarding persistent corruption, the inability to reinstate rule of law following the disclosed abuses from the Wiretapping Affair (2015), and the lack of further progress regarding EU-membership despite heavy national concessions such as the name change (2019). The election results can also be read as a symptom of the population’s major disillusionment with the prospect of opening EU accession negotiations soon. Following these developments, a change of power can be expected, with VMRO-DPMNE eyeing to reclaim the central government (after their 2017 exit) at the next parliamentary elections which could take place as late as 2024.